You can tell a ripe corn from the look on its face. It’s a straight fight between APC and PDP. ADC would be a very distant third. The fact that APC came like a bang and took power in 2015 was due to some factors;
– clamour for change
– presidential liberalism
– ethnic & religious card
– weak personality of the president
-obscene & vexatious corruption
Those factors have changed. APC is very ruthless. No new party can uproot it with ease. The change excitement is dead. Religious & ethnic colouration has changed. It won’t be north vs south or Islam vs Christianity. New factors to expect would include insecurity,continuous corruption, health of president, incapacity, threat to democracy, IG vs Senate, nepotism in appointments etc.
How is ADC going to spread in nooks and cranny of the country so soon? Even if they do, how can they win the confidence of people when change is no longer a selling point? People are scared to accept change because of the kind of change they have experienced. Where are their existing political structures? No two political scenario can be the same and one size of shoe cannot fit all legs.
To expect the same embrace from the public is dangerous optimism. What is OBJ’s public rating. He may be a spoiler but cannot build. He lost his area in person and can’t do much to get that area back.
In my view, a coalition built around PDP is a better option as the rebranding efforts are getting results.